Applied Analysis

01/09/05 Now that I'm in the Show
Things I am learning to help me survive a full NBA season as a statistical consultant.
06/01/04 Roboscout and the Four Factors of Basketball Success
Roboscout suggests the strengths and weaknesses that are exploitable in a team. Some teams are good at one area of the game and consistently good -- there is nothing you can do about them. But other teams may be good at one area of the game, but they show weaknesses every so often. That's what this tool picks up. By looking at the Four Factors of basketball success that are highlighted in Basketball on Paper, it really presents a great tool for beating an opponent and building your own team into a more successful one.
04/07/99 Defensing a Team's Top Option
UConn won their national title by double-teaming Duke's Elton Brand, preventing him from scoring a lot. Is it a generally good strategy to stop a team's top scoring threat? This is a basic look at the question.
11/21/97 Is Antoine Walker For Real?
Stats questioning the laurels placed on Antoine Walker as some great player.
11/14/97 Are They Meeting Expectations
Early records on the year are a weak indicator of whether that team will live up to predictions. Here is a statistical test that decides how well the predictions are doing -- early in the season or at the end.
09/18/97 In Defense The Scheme's The Thing
All our methods for evaluating the defensive abilities of basketball players are flawed. Here, I talk about what they do well, what they don't do well, and what they never will account for. I also show what positions are important for defense and how much a coach is responsible for.
08/21/97 They Say Defense Wins Championships
... But does it? Think about it. Look at the evidence. I have lots of it.
07/21/97 The Power of Parity
Parity is what the NBA strives for, pulling the good teams and the bad teams toward mediocrity. It pulled the Minnesota Timberwolves all the way there last season. The hard part is getting better.
07/12/97 Those Different Leagues
I have received numerous contributions from people around the world. This is where I spotlight international basketball and look at the possible WNBA players of the future...
07/05/97 The First Diaper Rash
The WNBA has been publicizing everything from its first dive into the crowd to the first player ever introduced. They went a bit too far with this... Also includes a look at the best teams and players so far.
06/25/97 The Twin Tower Dilemma
The San Antonio Spurs appear determined to choose Tim Duncan and play him alongside David Robinson next year. Is there a reason to believe that this pairing will not work? What does history say? Is that history appropriate?
06/08/97 Every Shot to Win
Relive every play the Jazz and the Bulls ran in the fourth quarter of the classic Game 4 of the Finals.
06/04/97 MVP ... Other Than Jordan
Michael Jordan has been the best player in the league for a long time and 1997 was no different. Karl Malone had a pretty good year himself. These are the individual win-loss records for all the candidates.
06/01/97 Simulating the Finals
I asked Bob Chaikin, consultant to the Miami Heat, to simulate the NBA Finals as well as to make his best estimate of who will win. These are his results.... I also add my estimate of the number of games it will take for the Jazz to lose to the Bulls.
05/20/97 Toying With 'Em
The Bulls will either blow you out and play their scrubs in the fourth quarter or they will play a good team tight until the fourth quarter, then turn it up. By doing this, their numbers do not reflect how good they really are... until now. This article explains how to look past the Bulls' tendency to play down to opponents.
05/18/97 Conference Finals Predictions 1997
What the numbers say and what I say to predict the 1997 conference finals.
05/15/97 How to Beat Houston: No Threes!!!
Hakeem Olajuwon is a great defender, but his offense cannot carry the Rockets. Teams should use that to their advantage in the playoffs because, as I show, when the Rockets take advantage of double-teams to hit three-pointers, they are a much better team... Also, a brief comment on the disgraceful non-basketball in the Miami-New York series.
05/11/97 The Heat is on Miami and Mashburn
Miami supposedly acquired Jamal Mashburn to make its title shot better. But Mashburn's shot isn't all that great. That is one reason why Miami struggled against New York in their 1997 playoff matchup.
05/10/97 Updated Playoff Odds 5/10/97
Chicago shows us their superhuman side. Utah is beginning to look like a demi-god, too. What happens when the gods collide? Very premature look at a Utah-Chicago Finals.
05/09/97 Updated Playoff Odds 5/9/97
The Miami-New York series restarts with Miami's win in Game Two. The Seattle-Houston series takes a turn with a couple of missed free throws and a legitimately big shot by Clyde Drexler.
05/08/97 Updated Odds, Bulls Lose
With the Bulls' loss, do the Hawks really have a chance? Have they swung momentum so much that they can knock off the greatest team in history? We can get a handle on it and look at the other series, too.
05/07/97 Second Round Predictions
The numbers behind the second round series. Also includes a look at Portland's Rasheed Wallace and his adjustment to the NBA.
05/01/97 Teasing the Enemy: Playing Up or Down to an Opponent
The best teams can play down to their opponent and know they will win. Seattle is one of those good teams that feels it has to blow a team out to win. That is one reason why they are struggling in the playoffs.
04/24/97 Mission Impossibull: Beating the Bulls
An animated preview of what it takes to beat the Bulls this year (if you do not have a javascript-capable browser, you are out of luck). Also includes a playoff preview.
04/10/97 The Raw Rookie Class
The promise of youth sparks our interest in the rookies and inspires us to choose our Rookie of the Year. Unfortunately, so many of the rookies are not improving and some of these guys will grow up to be just like Harold Miner.
04/03/97 How Defense Influences Three Point Shooting
The NBA All-Star Shootout provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the effect of defense on three-point shooting efficiency. Read how big a difference it can make... Also a quick re-evaluation of the NBA's offensive woes.
03/28/97 Calculating Tournament Odds
This article is primarily by Gil Graybill, who used a statistical method to estimate the chances that a #16 seed would win the NCAA Tournament.
03/05/97 How Slow Can You Go?
The Cleveland Cavaliers recently beat the Chicago Bulls by getting an early lead and keeping the game slow. Playoff teams should take note -- the strategy helps.
02/12/97 The Rodman File
Rodman's recent suspension presented a good opportunity to evaluate him compared to his replacement, Toni Kukoc.
01/29/97 But Seriously, Who's An All-Star?
The average fan determines the starters. The coaches determine the reserves. You'd think that the uneducated fans would make worse choices than the coaches. Maybe not.
01/03/97 Response to Critiques
Almost two years ago, I posted an article to a newsgroup where I chose the Rookie of the Year using methods from JoBS. A follow-up post protested the use of any sort of statistics for evaluating players. This is my response to that criticism.
11/16/96 Can the Chicago Bulls Be Perfect?
Michael Jordan stated that he wanted to have "the perfect season". These were there odds... This has been updated to include their odds of winning 75 along with looks at Houston and Seattle, two teams with good records.
11/12/96 The Bridge to the 21st Century
The NBA is skimming the best players out of college basketball anticipating that they will make them strong into the next century. Take a look at what is really happening.
11/02/96 The Effect of Bad Referees
Finally I've figured out how to do it. Now I know how to strike back at the refs, to let them know how they can change the odds of winning or losing if they are doing a bad job. I finally figured out what it means for a ref to do a bad job.
08/05/96 A Review of the Top Free Agents
This is a rather large compilation of the top free agents on the market this summer. It includes their official NBA stats and their stats, etc.
07/17/96 Dreamin' of the Dream Team
America's finest take the floor against the rest of the world. What can we expect from them?
7/14/96 Statistics for Rookies of 1996
How did this past year's rookie crop do? Most of them didn't really help their team, as these numbers show and as history shows. These numbers pretty strongly indicate that, of the true rookies, Michael Finley was the best.
6/26/96 College Numbers for NBA Draftees
How efficiently did the NBA draftees score in college? With college numbers for draftees from the prior two drafts, as well.
6/17/96 Strike Up the Accordion! It's Party Time in Chicago!
The Bulls were the oldest team in the league, the biggest, the most experienced, the second tallest, and easily the best.
6/5/96 Hooked on Sonics? How Can They Spell Victory?
The 1996 Finals has Seattle facing a juggernaut in the Chicago Bulls. What are some of the things they should do to improve their odds?
5/29/96 So You Think You're A Star? Errors and Misconceptions in Evaluating Exceptional Talent
It is very difficult to tell whether a player is going to be one-in-a-million like Michael Jordan or just another NBA player. This article gives some of the statistical reason for this difficulty and some basic guidelines for helping to determine how good a prospect is.
5/7/96 End-of-Season Team Notebook
A brief look at the best offenses and defenses of the season, what the most consistent and inconsistent teams were, and a preliminary look at who got lucky or unlucky this season and what that means for them next year.
4/30/96 Playoff Home Court Advantage
The playoffs give teams a day of rest between games and extra preparation time to stand up to that brutal home court advantage. That's the traditional logic, at least. This article examines whether there really is an effect of the playoff format upon the home court advantage.
4/15/96 Shooters vs. Dunkers: Their Effects on Winning
The streaky three point shooter can get you back into a game or take you out of a game. The inside player who always gets to the line or hits layups may not be as dramatic, but is the workhorse to carry you through games. Are there cases when one player is more preferable than the other?
04/07/96 The Charlotte Hornets' Decision of Whether to Trade Rex Chapman
In 1990, I was asked to analyze a proposed trade sending Cleveland's Larry Nance and Steve Kerr to Charlotte for Rex Chapman. The trade never happened, but six years later, the projected futures of the players involved look pretty good.
04/01/96 April's Fool: The Devil in Dennis Rodman
It is said that sportswriting is made up of two things: Knowledge and BS. Most of the articles written about Dennis Rodman have fallen into the latter category. This one doesn't.
03/25/96 What Strategies Are Risky?
What exactly are risky strategies in basketball and how do they help an underdog or hurt a favorite?
03/22/96 What Are Kentucky's Chances?
Prior to Kentucky winning the NCAA Title, I evaluated whether the 7-5 odds they were getting were reasonable.
03/18/96 Should Patrick Ewing Be A Number One Option?
When Don Nelson was fired from the Knicks, he suggested that Patrick Ewing was no longer fit to be the first option in the offense if the Knicks wanted to win a title. Was Nelson bitter or was there some truth to his parting words?
03/10/96 Measuring the Effects of Consistency on Winning for Individuals
Only on the web can you actually interact with state-of-the-art research. This article includes a JavaScript calculator specially designed to evaluate how often a player with a certain and wins a game. The mathematics are not very difficult, but the results are occasionally counterintuitive, which is why experimenting with the calculator is a good idea. For example, you can show that a player with a worse floor percentage and offensive rating can actually have a winning percentage higher than another player with better numbers. This occurs when the worse-looking player uses more possessions in a game... But it is hard to generalize, which is one reason why evaluating talent is difficult even with good numbers.
02/16/96 The Effect of Controlling Tempo
Theoretical statistics to show how slowing the game helps an underdog's chances. Also, a brief discussion of how the pace of the NBA has changed in the past 20 years.
02/05/96 Jordan vs Olajuwon: Who's Better? Using a Scientific Method
A scientific comparison of two of the best players in the game. One of the most popular articles at JoBS.
01/08/96 Basketball Rah-Rah
Scientific reasons why the game is exciting, as though we needed them.
01/08/96 How Often Do Teams Get Lucky?
Some of those quality wins may be luck, probably more than you think.
12/01/95 Basketball's Bell Curve
One of the most fundamental articles defining my work. This is an important issue about how points aren't the only important factor in evaluating players and teams. Consistency is also important. Contains new applets to show point distributions and how those distributions affect winning percentage.
--/--/95 A Comparison of Rating Methods
This was a comparison of the team and individual rating methods seen used in various basketball news groups.
--/--/90 Individual Floor Percentage
An elementary introduction to the concept of efficient offensive players, not just those that score a lot. Uses numerous players to illustrate its value. Shows Karl Malone's breakthrough year numbers.
--/--/90 Analyzing Players and Offenses With Floor Percentage
A second column illustrating how floor percentage can be used to evaluate players and design offenses.
--/--/90 The Floor Percentage Paradox
How can one player outdo another in field goal percentage, free throw percentage, and assist-to-turnover ratio, but still be less efficient offensively? This article answers this question.