The Bulls' struggles vs. Atlanta at home were surprising, but how much did they really mean? Should we suddenly believe that Atlanta is the favorite in this series? Did they really steal momentum?
It is questions like these that make me look at the numbers. I want answers. I can be warm and fuzzy and use phrases like, "The Hawks are now in control" or "The Bulls will now turn it up". But what I want is something to ground an analysis in. Perhaps the Bulls' loss was just a random loss that does not mean anything. That is what the numbers can show.
In this case, they show that Chicago's loss was somewhat significant. Prior to the loss, Chicago's odds of winning the series were 96%. Now their odds are 64%, still good, but not a guarantee. Atlanta is still fighting uphill and cannot afford to lose another game, but they have gotten the odds to be realistic.
Subjectively, I'm not convinced that Atlanta has done anything that systematically hurts the Bulls. They were just incredibly lucky with a number of shots in Game Two and their defense, while good, is only enough to give them a chance, not to make it easy. With an offense built around inconsistent shooters, the Hawks have to hope to stay lucky, especially from three-point land. Against the Bulls, that -- and a lot of defense -- is what it will take.
In the other series, the Lakers' victory over the Jazz at home didn't help much. At the start of the series, the Jazz were seen as having an 88% chance of winning. Now, they look like 91% favorites. The Laker blowout meant little.
On the other hand, Seattle's victory over Houston in Game Two did give them a slight edge in their series. Seattle was 45-55 underdogs to start, but now are 56-44 favorites. It was an important victory because if they had lost both games, their chances would be only about 17%. This is going to be a fun series.
Finally, the Miami Heat lost Game 1 to New York in Miami. Whoop-de-do-dah. Miami was the only team in the league with a better road record than home record in the regular season, including their record-setting 15 game road winning streak. After losing Game One, their odds of winning the series dropped from 57% to 40%. But if they win Game Two at home, their odds essentially return right back to 57%.