Some College Prospects and Their Numbers

Introduction and Disclaimer

I am always hesitant to evaluate college players and their prospects for the future...for the public, that is. There are many reasons for this. First of all, my opinion is worth something in this matter and it does not make sense to give it away for free. Second, I use numbers to form that opinion, but the numbers are not my opinion. People argue with me about the results of the numbers, calling them bunk because they "didn't work" for so-and-so. The numbers I present below are (close to) fact and are not meant as a perfect predictor of success or failure. I call individual offensive and defensive ratings, floor percentages, etc. "facts" because none of these numbers were developed to support opinion; rather, they were developed to reflect aspects of the game I see as a scout and as a coach that are not adequately demonstrated with traditional stats. Hence, the numbers below represent something true about the players; this certainly does not mean that they represent everything about that player. They are indicators of success or failure in the next level because they are indicators of success or failure at the current level. But neither are they perfect indicators of current success nor are they perfect predictors of the future. It's a scary thought to me that we can condemn a kid to failure because his current numbers (whatever they reflect) are not good. I present the following numbers because you can't hide the truth. It's up to everyone to form their opinions, perhaps based on these numbers, perhaps not. Besides, I'm keeping the numbers I use to really evaluate college kids to myself....

The Players

Inside Sports called Ray Allen the next Michael Jordan and they "mean it this time". Yeah, well they meant it every other time, too, right? Or were all those other articles just jokes?

I currently do not have a lot of college numbers in my database. What I'm giving here are numbers I calculated today after downloading them from Jazzy J, a guy who spends a lot of time getting college stats. Still, he doesn't go too far back in history, so I'm giving numbers for just the '94-95 season, plus Michael Jordan's stats from his three years in school, since he seems to be everyone's gold standard. If anyone has any requests for numbers on specific players, write me and let me know. I believe that most of the information for doing the calculations are available in JoBS, but it's complex and they aren't all in one place yet, so I don't expect everyone to pull up their own spreadsheet and start calculating. I make no promises because I am busy, but this is an effort that is worth some time.

Another important note is that the college game yields somewhat different numbers than those seen in the NBA. This is for several reasons. First, the three point line is more important in college (which is why offensive ratings can be high while floor percentages low). Second, the level of competition in college varies much more significantly than in the NBA (which is why offensive ratings tend to be falsely high, even for players in relatively strong conferences); NBA teams don't go through a season with just one loss, not even the Bulls. Third, college allows the zone, which makes defensive numbers somewhat more unreliable and also affects the interpretation of some offensive numbers. There are probably four or five more reasons, but they're not coming off the top of my head anymore and these are probably the most important ones.... On to the numbers...

Scor.Poss.FloorRTG Points Defensive StopsDef.Off. OffensiveNetNetNetWins LossNet
Poss.Pct.Prod. Total/Min/PossRtg.Win%Wins LossesWin%WLPer 1000 MinutesPts/48
95KittlesVillanova2995350.559 126.16752910.2390.68591.4 0.9837.40.10.9956.60.0 5.40.07.3
95EberzVillanova1963990.492 118.14711780.1670.47899.7 0.9525.30.30.9434.70.34.40.33.3
95LawsonVillanova2033660.556 109.03992230.2340.67192.0 0.8414.30.80.9424.50.3 4.80.33.1
95KornegayVillanova1152340.489 99.52331490.2000.57595.8 0.5401.81.50.6492.11.1 2.91.50.6
95AllenUConn2795190.536 120.16242460.2340.60392.4 0.9776.50.20.9875.70.1 5.40.16.6
95D. MarshallUConn2234310.517107.1 4621990.2040.52395.50.867 4.80.70.8684.20.64.3 0.72.4
95ShefferUConn1954190.466 103.54331970.2070.53295.2 0.7864.21.20.7983.81.0 4.01.01.7
95OllieUConn1933500.551 119.14171740.1690.43599.1 0.9744.40.10.9544.10.2 4.00.23.3
95KnightUConn1442680.539 106.72862250.2930.75286.4 0.8593.00.50.9703.60.1 4.60.13.4
95StackhouseUNC3085630.548 112.36322680.2290.65595.3 0.8326.61.30.9376.30.4 5.40.43.9
95WallaceUNC2664100.649 126.55192400.2330.66894.8 0.9735.60.20.9915.30.0 5.20.06.1
95McInnisUNC2194030.543 121.24881830.1570.451103.5 0.9465.40.30.9314.80.4 4.20.32.9
95D. WilliamsUNC2194330.506117.5 5081520.1310.374106.60.913 5.60.50.8334.40.93.8 0.81.9
95ChildressWake F.2925820.502115.7673 2010.1650.478109.30.6805.7 2.70.7194.91.94.01.6 1.5
95DuncanWake F.2624580.573114.5524 3230.2770.80196.40.6434.2 2.40.9456.10.45.20.3 3.4
95DelkKentucky2244280.523 119.25101850.1930.49991.3 0.9925.50.00.9884.60.1 4.80.16.0
95RhodesKentucky2064330.475 104.14501820.2020.52390.3 0.9295.20.40.9124.20.4 4.70.53.2
95McCartyKentucky1542900.530 113.83301790.2400.62286.3 0.9833.70.10.9903.50.0 4.70.05.1
95PopeKentucky1212230.545 114.22541820.2500.64685.4 0.9842.80.00.9923.00.0 4.20.04.2
95O'Bannon EdUCLA2945210.565120.0 6252800.2480.63890.20.980 6.50.10.9915.90.15.2 0.06.6
95EdneyUCLA2524440.566 116.55182050.2100.54194.1 0.9685.50.20.9714.80.1 4.90.14.9
95O'Bannon C.UCLA2263750.604120.6 4522260.2250.57992.60.982 4.70.10.9874.50.14.5 0.15.0
95BaileyUCLA1653350.493 100.13351730.2100.53994.1 0.7173.11.20.7352.91.0 3.51.31.2
95HendersonUCLA1593170.501 102.83261550.2070.53194.5 0.7983.20.80.8032.90.7 3.90.91.7
95ZidekUCLA1592870.553 107.83101580.2050.52694.7 0.8963.30.40.8963.10.4 4.00.52.4
95IversonGtown3106650.467 94.96312120.2200.57789.4 0.6845.92.70.7284.71.7 4.81.81.8
95HarringtonGtown1853400.544 103.73531820.2370.62187.6 0.9034.00.40.9423.70.2 4.80.33.4
95Reid D.Gtown1152070.553104.7 2171880.2560.67385.50.916 2.50.20.9652.90.14.0 0.12.6
95Knight B.Stanford2574740.543111.5 5282030.2230.61495.80.850 5.51.00.9254.90.45.4 0.43.9
95CrossStanford1883760.501 117.74431240.1330.366105.7 0.9324.80.40.8553.70.6 3.90.72.3
95YoungStanford1683080.546 104.83231900.2600.71791.7 0.6702.81.40.9013.50.44.80.52.7
95CambyUMass1993460.574 110.93841960.2890.78579.6 0.9754.60.10.9964.00.0 5.90.07.7
95RoeUMass2714690.578 111.35222140.2210.60187.0 0.9776.20.10.9835.20.15.4 0.15.7
95BrightUMass1623100.522 103.53201660.2240.60886.6 0.9273.90.30.9503.50.2 4.80.33.4
95Smith JoeMD3265210.627121.9 6353250.2920.77487.10.975 6.70.20.9966.30.05.6 0.07.8
95RhodesMD2224110.540 117.84842550.2290.60793.8 0.9575.20.20.9775.10.1 4.60.14.2
95SimpkinsMD1813630.499 111.14031570.1420.376103.0 0.8954.30.50.7773.51.0 3.10.91.3
95Minor RyanOK3195840.547118.4 6922790.2390.65293.90.942 7.50.50.9796.50.15.6 0.15.9
95Ontjes JonOK1973660.537123.0 4501790.1680.458101.70.968 4.80.20.9584.40.24.2 0.23.5
95Barnes DOK1613180.509110.4351 1290.1610.439102.40.836 3.60.70.7742.90.83.6 1.11.5
95BestGATech2735220.523 117.96161910.1710.475102.5 0.9186.60.60.9105.40.5 4.80.53.5
95ForrestGATech2133970.536 104.34141840.2220.61596.9 0.5953.22.20.7703.61.1 4.31.31.7
95Barry DGATech1873490.538122.8 4281800.1860.517100.80.956 4.60.20.9634.30.24.5 0.23.8
95HarpringGATech1633170.515 109.53471900.1900.526100.5 0.7663.31.00.8053.50.8 3.50.81.4
95Van HornUtah2904970.583126.3 6282220.2230.66890.30.989 7.30.10.9965.90.06.0 0.08.6
95JessieUtah2564900.524 107.85282020.1910.57194.2 0.8676.31.00.9035.30.65.0 0.53.0
95Reeves BOKSt3666190.592113.1 7002840.2200.64389.20.958 8.60.40.9817.30.15.7 0.15.5
95RutherfordOKSt2695150.522 126.66512720.2020.59091.3 0.9937.40.10.9956.70.0 4.90.06.5
95OwensOKSt1853970.467 103.64112320.1970.57691.9 0.8414.90.90.8794.80.7 4.10.61.9
95WilsonMissSt2144220.507 120.65091840.1910.54891.4 0.9895.90.10.9905.00.1 5.20.16.1
95DampierMissSt1893350.563 107.93622420.2840.81880.7 0.9364.50.30.9924.50.0 5.30.05.1
95RespertMichSt2845290.537 126.46681650.1760.50598.6 0.9847.40.10.9845.70.1 6.00.17.5
95SnowMichSt1953560.548 113.94061720.1880.53997.2 0.9174.70.40.9324.20.3 4.60.33.1
95HaaseKU2084330.481 108.44701780.1970.52393.3 0.9295.30.40.9224.40.44.9 0.43.5
95LaFrentzKU1643070.535 103.73181740.2370.63289.0 0.8623.50.60.9263.40.3 4.70.43.0
95VaughnKU1933660.526 113.94171810.1730.46195.8 0.9674.70.20.9464.30.2 4.10.23.0
95ParksDuke2634770.552 114.75472460.2250.64397.0 0.8455.71.00.9405.50.45.1 0.33.7
95CapelDuke1804150.433 101.84231420.1550.443105.0 0.4352.53.30.3751.83.0 1.93.2-0.7
95WilliamsonArk3766410.587 114.07312940.2440.61294.8 0.9107.20.70.9556.40.3 5.30.24.9
95ThurmanArk2274700.483 116.55482100.1770.446101.4 0.9355.50.40.9084.80.5 4.00.42.9
95RobinsonArk1112740.405 84.12311240.2340.58995.7 0.0620.23.20.1050.32.6 0.64.8-2.9
95StoudamireAriz3126140.509 119.67342060.1890.49698.2 0.9677.60.30.9636.00.2 5.50.25.8
95OwesAriz2123970.534 104.94172120.2270.59594.2 0.7673.91.20.8534.00.74.2 0.72.2
82JordanUNC2173860.563 109.34221790.1650.54090.5 0.9606.00.30.9575.30.24.9 0.23.2
83JordanUNC3155550.568 115.26392440.2200.71783.5 0.9838.90.20.9957.30.0 6.60.07.6
84JordanUNC2814810.584 114.05491930.2110.69084.6 0.9797.70.20.9936.20.06.7 0.07.4