Hooked on Sonics? How Can They Spell Victory?

5 June, 1996

Last offseason, the Seattle franchise tried to remove the "Super" from their nickname. Yes, it would be easier to write Sonics, rather than SuperSonics, and those nicknames with adjectives in them like SuperSonics and Mighty Ducks are a bit pretentious, but I originally wondered whether they wanted to make the change because their previous two playoff series were such disasters because the "Super" part was putting too much pressure on poor George Karl. The name change was not allowed by the NBA, but most people called the team just the Sonics anyway and, whadyaknow, Seattle finds itself in a position to steal a championship series from one of the greatest teams ever assembled. Of course, Seattle hasn't yet done anything besides earn an airline ticket to Chicago, but just by being there, they have a chance.

That chance is only about 10-15%, but what was surprising about the calculation was that the most likely outcome was the Bulls winning in six games, not in five or in four. Even more surprising was that the next most likely outcome was the Bulls winning in seven games. The series is closer than most might imagine. (The reason six and seven game series are more likely than, say, a five game series is because of the 2-3-2 format, which puts Seattle on its home court for game, where they are actually favored over the Bulls.)

The above odds are based solely upon win-loss records, which is very reliable information when other more detailed sources are not available. Being able to use information for all it is worth is an important theme in my research -- I do not claim to have all the answers, but I know how to squeeze a lot of answers out of relatively little information. In this case, I cannot claim to have watched days of tape of the Sonics or of the Bulls, but I know how to take some of their statistical information and answer some of the questions asked by those who do watch days of tape. For instance, should the Sonics double-team Michael Jordan and force the other Bulls to beat them or should they shut down the "other guys"? I could spend days sitting in front of the video machine, explicitly counting the times teams double-teamed Jordan and how many times the Bulls still scored, then counting the times teams covered him straight up and whether the Bulls scored then. It would give some valuable information, but I don't have the tapes and few people (certainly not me) have the time. Even with these results, some might argue that this information compiled against various opponents is not relevant to the Seattle "Don't Call Us Super" Sonics.

Without the tapes and someone to watch them all, there is still a way to get a general answer. Since Seattle is an underdog (a rather heavy one in Chicago), they should employ a risky strategy, one that could lead to getting blown out, but improves their overall odds of winning. Risky strategies include shooting three pointers, trapping, and, yes, double teaming. Until I did some of my more recent work, I never had the information to answer the question of whether to double team Jordan or stop his teammates. But, given 1. Seattle's underdog status, 2. Underdogs should take risks, 3. Double teaming is a risk, and 4. Jordan's teammates are more inconsistent (risky) than he is -- it makes sense for Seattle to double team Jordan and force those inconsistent other Bulls to beat them....

...In general. This strategy is very situation-dependent. If Seattle is not an underdog -- if they are ahead by a lot with a little time left or if they are at home (expected winning percentage vs. Bulls in Seattle is 58-65%, depending on how it is evaluated) -- it probably pays to be conservative and guard Jordan with one man. This is only "probably" true because it could be that Jordan eats single coverage so much that the effect I am relying upon is neutralized. Without that information, though, you rely on what you know and that implies double-teaming when the odds aren't in your favor and single coverage otherwise.

Besides this one area, there are other things that Seattle can do to improve their chances against the Bulls.

For one thing, as good as Shawn Kemp is, his 0.545 floor percentage is not enough to carry a Seattle team that will need help from all players, especially the three point shooters -- Hawkins, McMillan, Payton, Schrempf, and Perkins. But they cannot just stand at the line and hope to win either. The Bulls defense is the best in the NBA and it shuts down set shooters (like Perkins, in particular), so the threat to drive must be there. Houston won their last two championships because Robert Horry or Kenny Smith or Sam Cassell or Clyde Drexler always complimented Olajuwon's scoring. The same has to happen for Seattle to win. Getting all players involved in the offense (something Seattle does pretty well) makes everyone better: A good team is always better than the sum of its parts. Because of this, player-by-player matchup analyses are inappropriate -- just compare Orlando and Chicago by position.

Second, when Jordan is out of the game, Seattle should play mostly straight defense (unless they are well behind). Double teaming leaves complimentary players open and, if one or two of them get hot, it can spark them all. When Jordan is in (which is most of the game), this is a necessary risk, but when he is not, this defense minimizes the chance of a run. An assumption inherent in this recommendation is that Scottie Pippen is not good enough offensively (defense is a very different story) to make the Bulls' offense very dangerous. Pippen's offensive struggles in the playoffs have been well-documented, but he has also gone through offensive droughts in the regular season, which is why my numbers always show him with a fairly average floor percent at around 0.530.

Third, something I'd personally like to see someone use against the Bulls is a ball fake. The Bulls react so quickly to the ball that they can really be slowed down and worn down with good ball fakes. This really is personal preference, but I'd love to see a few ball fakes and back doors to make Chicago think before closing down the passing lanes.

Foremost, Seattle has to believe that they can win. The best way to do this is to steal a game in Chicago, which improves their odds of winning the series to about 45%, or close to an even bet. In the complex world of basketball and science, such an event would then also change Seattle's (and Chicago's) strategy, but that is another article.