Los Angeles Lakers '97-98

THE BIG GUY USED TO BE CAREFREE, rapping and acting because he had the energy to do it. But the big guy now has pressure on him. He is now a Dad, which is something that is hard to do part time, like rapping or acting. Shaq also has a reputation that he is conscious of, not one he is making up as he goes along as he did in his first few years. That reputation carries responsibility and the pressure to live up to it. And Shaq has a big hole in his game that is becoming the kryptonite that killed Superman.

If Shaq can't bully himself to the basket, he struggles because he now knows, after five years of tutelage in the art, that he cannot make free throws.

It is not just that he is shooting them worse every year -- which he is -- it is also that he is shooting them less every year. Shaq is scaring away from going to the line because he can't make them. It is now taking away from his floor game. Except for the standard rookie turnovers, he was probably a better overall player in '93 than he is now. If Shaq got to the line last year as much as he did as a rookie and made as high a percentage as he did as a rookie, he and the Lakers would have scored 90 more points. Those 90 points add up to 3 extra wins, first place in the Pacific Division, and home court advantage against Houston in the second round of the playoffs, not second round loser to Utah.

It is not normal for players to come into the league at such a high level as Shaq did. It is also not normal for great players to begin their decline as young as Shaq has apparently begun his. Look at it any way you like, but his numbers and the projection of his future have gotten slightly worse each of the last two seasons.

Part of it has been injuries that have taken away from his youthful exuberance. Before the NBA, no one was ever big enough to hurt Shaq. Now, players almost as big as he is can hit him a lot harder without hurting themselves. Now, there are a lot of players who are quicker than he is, not just a couple guards. He has had to exert himself more and that caused injuries.

Another part of it may be the mental aspect of accepting that he is not Superman. In high school he won a state championship because it was easy and there wasn't anyone who was near his ability. In college, he played on an LSU team that didn't have much talent to support him. Shaq was comfortable with his individual honors and knowing that losing in the Tournament would not be his fault. Now that he is in the NBA, he has yet to adopt the open competitiveness of Jordan, Barkley, Malone. That open competitiveness would make him a leader that takes responsibility...

...Responsibility for making clutch shots, including free throws. More generally, Shaq needs to take responsibility for doing whatever it takes to make free throws consistently. He has listened to teachers and to gurus, but whatever he does, he has to know that the only way his career can grow is if he makes free throws. At this point, he will only let people down until he does the things necessary to win. Primarily, that is to make free throws.

...The Rest of the Lakers...

Elden Campbell plays a lot better without Shaq in the game. Both create their offense from the left low block, but both cannot be there at the same time. Shaq gets dibs because his paycheck is bigger, so Campbell suffers from inactivity much of the time. This is a problem of chemistry. As good as Campbell can be, the Lakers need a power forward that compliments Shaq better. Someone like former Orlando teammate Horace Grant.

Eddie Jones is the most critical player on the Lakers after Shaq. If he can turn up the defense, help out on the boards, and become a bit more consistent scoring threat, he makes himself a true All-Star, not just someone who got there as an afterthought.

Supposedly, Nick Van Exel is a lame duck at the point guard slot. His decision-making has always been suspect and now he's in Coach Harris' doghouse. He could be one of the guys taking the blame for the Lakers going down a notch this season and it is more likely than not that the Lakers will not win as much as last year.

Another reason the Lakers may not win as much is Kobe Bryant, who is still immature and less than an average ballplayer. He will show signs of greatness as he did last year, but will he show signs of improvement?

Rick Fox is an interesting addition to the team. Fox, by my numbers, was one of the two best players on the Celtics last year. He actually turned in a better than 0.500 year on a team with a 18% winning percentage. That, and Fox's continuous improvement since reaching the NBA, imply that he will be a positive addition in L.A.