Seattle SuperSonics '97-98

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Predicted: 48-34
1996-97: 57-25
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THIS YEAR IS EXTREMELY UNUSUAL in the large number of good teams with strong indicators that they will decline this year. Among them are New York, Miami, Chicago, Charlotte, Houston, Utah, and, since this column is about them, Seattle.

The indicators for each of these teams differ. A couple teams just got lucky to win as much as they did last. A couple teams have injuries to prominent players to start this season. Then there is Seattle, which simply had to get rid of one of its best players in exchange for Vin Baker.

Vin Baker is far from being Shawn Kemp. The Sonics lose an estimated 6 more games just through this trade of desperation. That is a hard way to approach the season.

The good thing for the Sonics is that they seem to play better when they are underdogs. Coach George Karl's pressure defense is a risky strategy that pays better dividends when they are constantly fighting to win, not just coasting. With a still strong talent base, anchored by the great Gary Payton, the Sonics have enough to get to the playoffs without much difficult. But they won't have any sort of home court advantage, especially if injuries occur to their overworked starters.

If the Sonics are to give some rest to their starters, it should probably come from Eric Snow, the second year point guard out of Michigan St, who had solid performances in very spotty time last year. Regardless of Nate McMillan's health, it would be a good idea to start getting time for Snow, who is either a player in Seattle's future or better trade bait than McMillan.

The Sonics don't have the luxury to give rest to their frontcourt without taking a big hit. Behind Baker, Detlef Schrempf, and Sam Perkins, there is no one. Jim McIlvaine is a decent defensive center, but not a great one who can make up for his offensive liabilities by shutting down opposing teams. Terry Cummings wasn't much help last year, but even he is gone.

Rumor has it that Karl will step down as coach of the Sonics at the end of the year. If he does, he is leaving a franchise with one outstanding player, but little else for the future.