Indiana Pacers '97-98

Well, with the hiring of Larry Bird as coach of the Pacers, the Mayor is getting his chance. During this preseason, Hoiberg has shone as the first sub off the bench. He's shooting better than Reggie Miller from every part of the floor and turning the ball over less. On a team that passes well, Hoiberg will get a lot of good looks and, unlike a lot of "athletes", he will make them.

Before you get on my case for basing this praise on preseason performance, I should present the college numbers that first raised my interest in him:

There are several numbers here that stand out from most college players. First of all, Hoiberg did well as a freshman, averaging almost 12 points produced per game and doing it efficiently. It is rare for frosh to have an offensive rating of 120 and when they do, they usually turn into NBA stars. Reggie Miller, Michael Jordan, and Karl Malone are some of the players I have evaluated who have done as well as freshman. Good company.

Hoiberg's numbers also did not drop off much as he progressed and became the focus of defenses. This happens a lot to college players, even some who turn into good pros. Grant Hill, for instance, flourished as an undergrad with Christian Laettner and Bobby Hurley getting significant attention, then his efficiency suffered as a senior when his teammates were gone and Hill had to score more. Hoiberg's efficiency also declined as a senior, having to go to an outside shot more than in previous seasons. But it didn't decline so much that his team became bad. Just as Hill still led his Duke team far into the NCAA's, Hoiberg also brought his Cyclones to the second round. Just as Hill had little NBA talent surrounding him as a senior, Hoiberg had none around him.

Hoiberg's team also generally won, perhaps not as much as it should have, but Hoiberg and the Cyclones went to three NCAA Tournaments in his four years, winning 2 of 5 games.

The apparent reason that Hoiberg's team didn't win as much may also be the reason he hasn't played as much as he should have: Defense. Hoiberg is a little small to guard the small forward slot and a little slow to guard the big guard slot. Still, I'm not convinced that it is all that bad.

...But Enough About Hoiberg...

After several years where it looked like Indiana was getting one step closer to a title, the Pacers took a big step backwards last year. And then, as usual, Larry Brown bailed.

Brown's history has been to make a team good, then leave as soon as things might be looking bad. This time, however, he might have left a little early. The Pacers have the talent to be a solid playoff team this year. The offense is there with Miller, Chris Mullin, Rik Smits, Mark Jackson, and the aforementioned Hoiberg. The defense has been very good since Brown built it up, but will they stay good with Bird at the helm?

That is one of the questions I really don't have an answer for. It is difficult enough to evaluate coaches who have been coaching for a couple years, much less to evaluate one who has never coached before. My gut feel is that Bird is going to have a tough time, at least partly because he is following a quality coach. If Brown's coaching was winning the Pacers only three or four extra games per year (half of what I estimated for Pat Riley), then Bird has to be a better than an average coach to prevent disappointment...

...But Bird does have a few things going for him this year that Brown didn't last year. First of all, Smits is healthy. Though Smits is one of the weaker defensive centers in the league, he is better than the alternatives. Last year's backup, Erick Dampier, was OK defensively, but was absolutely pitiful offensively. A second thing going for Bird is that Mark Jackson is back. Jackson is a true point guard who, despite his continued reluctance to take open jumpers, does more to help an offense than to hurt it. His so-called replacement last year, Travis Best, has never gotten the feel for the point slot (but never received the criticism that Iverson got). Finally, Bird went out and got Hall of Famer Chris Mullin from Golden State, giving up Duane Ferrell and Dampier, two players who were worse than 0.500 players. Removing these two players and inserting Mullin makes Indiana a solid 45 win team. If McKey and Smits play like they did two years ago, the Pacers win 50.