Miami Heat '97-98

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Predicted: 52-30
1996-97: 61-21
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THE PERSONNEL OF THE HEAT mostly came from mediocre teams. Of the Heat players who garnered more than 1000 minutes last season, only Dan Majerle had ever played on a team as good. No player had ever played on as good a defensive team. Tim Hardaway, Voshon Lenard, Jamal Mashburn, and Sasha Danilovic had all been called relatively poor defensive players at one point in their career. Really, only three players on the team had ever made significant contributions to good teams: Hardaway, Alonzo Mourning, and Dan Majerle.

So how did these guys turn into one of the best teams in the NBA? There was no hotshot rookie with loads of talent. Hardaway and Majerle, who are both over 30, are past their primes. Mourning is in his prime at age 27, but his season was statistically no better than any other he's had. P.J. Brown is 29 and never has been much of a player. Jamal Mashburn had another lousy season that didn't live up to his commercials. Voshon Lenard and Isaac Austin, however, had break-out seasons and must have been the reason for the Heat success.

Yeah, right. Lenard and Austin were good, much improved, pleasant surprises, great complimentary players, but NOT the reasons the Heat won 61 games. Trade them to the Clippers and that franchise doesn't get resuscitated -- though that word falsely implies that the franchise once had some life.

Trade Pat Riley to the Clippers and then there's life in East L.A.

In a recent study, I looked at the impact that coaches can have on a defense. Riley's effect on the Knicks' defense was incredible, nearly three points per game over the previous coach, which works out to be roughly 8 extra wins over the course of the season. There are few players who can add 8 extra wins to their team through defense -- maybe Mutombo, Robinson, Ewing, Olajuwon.

Riley is the principal reason I pick Miami as the biggest threat to the Bulls in the coming season. If this team were coached by Allan Bristow, it would be a 0.500 ballclub, but Riley makes them a serious threat. His intensity turned one of the worst defenses in the NBA in '95 (pre-Riley) into one of the NBA's two best last year. Offensively, he has not collected the best bunch of talent, nor has he improved it any obvious way -- Mourning, Hardaway, Majerle, and Mashburn all posted similar offensive numbers with the Heat as they did elsewhere -- but he has enhanced the value of a Mourning hook, a Hardaway wobbly jumper, a Majerle 30-footer, and a Mashburn weak-looking perimeter shot by improving the defense by nearly 10 points per game in two years.

As much as Riley has irked me by teaching brutality to his teams, by asking for and getting a $200 per diem, and by not really changing his hair style to Bob Costas' after he lost their studio free throw contest, I respect the job he has done. There are not many coaches or players out there who have forced me to re-evaluate the methods I develop, which is what I am doing with my defensive numbers. But Riley is that good and that unique.